The August vacation time is over, and we now hurtle into the unknown last third of the year. The Inflation Guy starts this journey by clearing his desk of the small inflation stories that are interesting and worth discussing, but don't by themselves warrant a full episode. He discusses power, supply chains, price-linked currencies, Japan's experience with trying to get more inflation, and sticky renters. Enjoy, and find all of the links to the source articles below!   NOTES Blog Post: “A Price-Linked USD” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ ) WSJ Article: “Pay Your Rent, Get 2% Cash Back: Landlords Join Craze for Rewards” (https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/pay-your-rent-get-2-cash-back-landlords-join-craze-for-rewards-8bf68ee3) Utility Dive: “PJM capacity prices hit record highs, sending build signal to generators” (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-interconnection-capacity-auction-vistra-constellation/722872/ ) Reuters: “US importers balk at return of $10,000 container shipping rate” (https://www.reuters.com/business/us-importers-balk-return-10000-container-shipping-rate-2024-07-15/ ) NY Times “Japan Wanted Higher Inflation. It’s Here, and It Hurts.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/29/business/japan-inflation-rates.html ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

It's time for another CPI Report analysis, and the Inflation Guy wades through the confusing report to conclude that...it's not quite as good as it looks. In Episode 106, he talked about a "Potential Pony Situation." Is this a reverse pony situation? What the heck does that even mean? Who writes this stuff?   NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 106: This Month's CPI Report - A Potential Pony Situation” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-106-this-months-cpi-report-a-potential-pony-situation/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy begins by addressing the recent stock market sell-off and tells you what is really causing it. Hint: he told you in Episode 116 it was going to happen. And: if we are actually headed into a recession and possibly a bear market, what does that mean for inflation? Keep your eyes on the macro, not the micro. The Inflation Guy tells you what that means. NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 116: Political Volatility” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-116-political-volatility/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Perhaps a little less coffee would be in order. The Inflation Guy in this episode wanders through several topics, including the Biden Administration's proposal for national rent control, the eviction moratorium, different measures of rent inflation, market volatility and where to hide for the next 110 days until the US election. Focus, man, focus. Still, he has useful contributions on these topics! Listen and see.   NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 37: Bad Idea of the Year - Wage and Price Controls” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-37-bad-idea-of-the-year-wage-and-price-controls/ ) Podcast Callback: “Ep. 7: Rents and Sensibility” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-7-rents-and-sensibility/ ) Podcast Callback: “Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remedies” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep74-inflation-folk-remedies/ ) (This is the one the IG mentioned where he discusses ATRR and NTRR). Blog Post: “The Residual Effect on Rent Inflation of the Eviction Moratorium” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/18/the-residual-effect-on-rent-inflation-of-the-eviction-moratorium/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2024/ ) Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

It's that time again, and even though the punditry is now fixated more on the Unemployment Report than the inflation reports, the Inflation Guy doesn't have the trademark or the expertise to be The Unemployment Guy so this podcast is sticking to its knitting. This month's CPI report was the best we have seen in some time, and largely for the right reasons. Are there still things that need to happen for us to be safely on the road to low-and-stable inflation? Yes indeed - and the Inflation Guy discusses those things in this episode.   NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024) Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

One of the absolute rock-solid articles of faith in the economics community is the proposition that increasing interest rates causes inflation to decline. If you want to slow inflation by a lot, you need to increase interest rates a lot. There is no question that increasing interest rates slows economic growth, and hurts people by doing so. The only reason to do it is because economists believe strongly that it brings down inflation. But what if it doesn't? In this podcast, the Inflation Guy argues that neither logic nor empirical observations support the notion that increasing interest rates - especially in the absence of restricted money growth - causes inflation to decline. And the basic reason that this relationship is indeterminate is easy to understand. The IG explains. NOTES Last Week’s Great Podcast! Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns, Threats, and Promises Chart of Interest Rates vs Inflation: https://bit.ly/4eJTZly   Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024) Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

On this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy is blessed with not one but two outstanding guests, who help him unravel the significance of a recent client's problem: after selling his bitcoin on an exchange, the exchange made it difficult (so far, impossible) to transfer the proceeds back to his bank. As the Inflation Guy notes, "that's not in the marketing literature about crypto." So, he enlisted some experts to help explain what is going on, and what it means. Andy Fately, last heard from in Episode 66 of this podcast, is a veteran of more than 40 years in the foreign exchange markets, trading spot, forwards and options as well as running businesses for major US and international commercial and investment banks.  He is known as the FX Poet (https://fxpoetry.com/about-2/), but really focused on creating solutions for risk managers for problems as they arise. Susan Joseph, new to the program, is the Executive Director of FinTech at Cornell, and also engages as Fractional GC and Consultant, advising on crypto and digital assets strategy and its interaction with the regulatory world with a focus on the technical and legal interactions. Susan also educates through continuing legal education classes on blockchain, crypto, digital assets, and AI at Cornell, MIT, Stanford, PLI, and ABA and is a recognized expert. She has served as Secretary for both insurer and fintech boards, is an Advisor to certain crypto and other startups, and is the pro bono Executive Director of Diversity in Blockchain, a 501(c)(3) that supports inclusion.   NOTES FX Poet: https://fxpoetry.com/about-2/ Article “Central Bank Digital Currencies: Some Considerations,” by Andrew Fately and Susan Joseph, on Tabb Forum (free registration). Article “How CBDC’s May Impact Inflation,” by Michael Ashton, Andrew Fately, and Susan Joseph, on Tabb Forum (free registration). Article “Dirty Laundry” on DW Birch Substack Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024) Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

This month's CPI was a good number - happy news! But if the Inflation Guy was going to design a 'good number' from scratch, he wouldn't make it look like this. He would start at the other end. What does that mean? Take a listen, and find out why this is a good report and a 'goods' report, but maybe not a great report.   NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024) Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

At the 2023 Fed conference at Jackson Hole, Chairman Powell promised that the Fed would keep fighting inflation "until the job is done." Is the job done? The Inflation Guy thinks the signs suggest inflation is converging on a higher level than the Fed desires. Will the Fed really keep after it? Listen and find out what the Inflation Guy thinks. NOTES Pod Callback: Ep. 109: Famous Last Words Powell snippet: Source Bloomberg TV Odd reference: Wikipedia on Mummenschanz Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024) Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

The economists were mostly on-target with today's CPI report, at least with the headline and core figures. But that doesn't mean that there was nothing going on underneath the surface. Below the big headlines, some things are getting better and some things...aren't. What does it all mean, and does the Fed have some cover to cut rates? Listen to this episode to hear the Inflation Guy's take on those questions!   NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024) Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

"They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!" - General John Sedgewick, Union, US Civil War, moments before he was struck by a bullet in the eye. The tradition of 'famous last words' is alive and well, especially at the Federal Reserve and Treasury. From Bernanke saying the subprime crisis would be contained, to Yellen and Powell describing inflation as 'transitory,' and far beyond - the track record of overly-confident predictions that ultimately turn out to be hilariously wrong is alive and well. In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the most-recent candidate, from last week... NOTES Blog Callback: “You Cannot Inflate the Debt Away” Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” Blog for last month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024) Interesting Interactive CPI Chart the IG Didn't Even Mention But is Worth Looking At To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

There are several pernicious myths about the velocity of money that seem to never die. "Friedman said velocity is stable." "Velocity is just a plug number, so it is random." "Velocity is permanently impaired and only declines over time." These drive the Inflation Guy bananas, and from time to time he feels the need to talk about velocity. In this episode, the IG describes the main inputs into his model of velocity, and what the model currently implies about the future path of velocity from here. And, to be fair, he also kvetches some, and that's unseemly. We apologize for him. NOTES Blog Callback: “Enough With Interest Rates Already” Podcast Callback: “Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors” Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

We don't know if the origin of the 'ten most dangerous words in the English language' was Ronald Reagan, or if the story predates him. But those words, "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you," are the theme to today's podcast. The Inflation Guy interprets some recent news stories, but ties it all together with a crucial observation about what happens if the 'scarce resource' in a particular economy turns out to not be 'labor.' NOTES Dan Bongino Show from April 18 (https://megaphone.link/WWO9433765103 ). Listen from the 47 minute mark. Forbes “Medical Analysis by Milton Friedman” (2009) Washington Post “Biden administration to cap rent increases for some affordable housing units” Blog Callback: “Inflation and Insurance Companies, with Bill Poutsiaka” Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

On this month's CPI report, the Inflation Guy addresses yet another high-side surprise and discusses the details, along with how this fits into the continuing narrative. Curious about how this concerns ponies? You'll have to listen to the episode!   NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Okay, buckle up because the Inflation Guy here is going to cover some big-time concepts. Wayyyy back in 2003, some guys named Jarrow and Yildirim explained how inflation acts just like foreign exchange, except not foreign and not on an exchange. No, no, stay with me here. Turns out they were right, and a lot of what is happening today - and the mistakes in interpretation that are being made - can be understood if you understand that the 'inflation FX market' has just changed in important ways. This is an important episode!   NOTES Jarrow R, Yildirim Y (2003) Pricing treasury inflation protected securities and related derivatives using an HJM model. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 38(2):337–359. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=585828 Unidad de Fomento (Wikipedia entry): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidad_de_Fomento Chart: Nominal and inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller 10-City index, normalized to end of 2019 Chart: Nominal and Real S&P 500 Earnings, normalized to end of 2019 To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Every once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard. In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories and recent trends that seem to have an overarching theme: the general disinflationary trend we have been enjoying for the last year is starting to have some defectors. NOTES To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Another month, another above-consensus CPI print. The Inflation Guy tears into the data like a feral cat, ripping away the fatty bits to get at the meaty part. Okay, maybe that was too graphic. Anyway, this cat points to several signs in this month's inflation report that inflation is starting to get 'sticky' at a higher level than we'd like it to, and the recent inflation deceleration is going to get more difficult going forward. What is the implication for Fed policy? NOTES To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Both gold and crypto are occasionally put forth by promoters as having inflation-hedging qualities. Which of these has a better claim? Or are they both 'real assets' that can help you defend your money? Now that mutual funds and ETFs are launching seemingly weekly to hold BTC and other forms of crypto, 'democratizing access' to this 'asset class,' it is worth asking whether these funds are securities that should be included in every investor's toolkit. Listen to this episode before you take the plunge. In it, the Inflation Guy makes a very clear prediction about what is to come. NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 86: If Gold is Like TIPS, Should I Buy it? To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

This somewhat longer episode has a little bit of potpourri at the beginning, as the Inflation Guy covers the OER-Primary Rents divergence, the decline of Reverse RP balances, and the effect of AI on inflation...but the meat of the podcast is a discussion about a product (which a listener sent to the Inflation Guy) that resembles an inflation-linked annuity but in a mutual fund form. There are pros and cons to the product, and the IG covers them all before giving it a cautious thumbs up. The Inflation Guy is pleased that we are starting to see more and more innovative products, even if there are still plenty of frontiers as yet unexplored. So he continues to boldly go where no inflation guy has gone before! NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 54: Will Artificial Intelligence Kill Inflation? Blog Post: AI: Even a Big Deal is Smaller Than You Think Company reference: Stone Ridge Asset Management (Lifex Funds) Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0 Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

When your grandpa turns 100, you're going to hear stories. It just goes with the territory. When a podcast has its 100th episode, same deal. Grandpa Inflation Guy actually manages to keep the stories to a minimum, while reporting on a recent conversation he has had about a development in the health care inflation space and giving some optimistic readings about the future to the gathered listeners. Now for some cake! NOTES Podcast callback: Ep. 98: Will You Be Able to Trade Medical Care Inflation Soon? Podcast callback: Ep. 97: Inflation and Reinsurance - a Better Way Google Sheet with Speculative Subcomponent Inflation Swaps: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/118FRJVhjGTLoRr1ebqfZn7opTlavtmt8XuyAQHicx5I/edit#gid=0 Blog Post: Inflation Sherpa To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/