Cheap Talk makes a triumphant return for its 5th season: sauna diplomacy; what Olympic medal counts say about international prestige; our new secret nuclear plan; transparency and nuclear deterrence; Ukraine’s Kursk offensive; political vs. military goals in Ukraine; US restrictions on Ukraine’s military efforts; and Marcus discovers long-standing concepts in international relationsPlease subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Please send us your questions or comments!Further Reading:Alyson Krueger. 2024. ‘Whatever Happens in the Sauna Stays in the Sauna’: Diplomacy, Conducted in the Nude.” The New York Times.Robbie Gramer. 2023. “The Finnish Art of Sauna Diplomacy.” Foreign Policy.J. Patrick Rhamey, Jr. and Bryan R. Early. 2013. “Going for the gold: Status-seeking behavior and Olympic performance.” International Area Studies Review 16(3): 244-261.

The foreign policy implications of recent US news; a bad day for Vladimir Putin; Harris’ likely foreign policy; the role of the Vice President in international affairs; assassination attempts as a signal of vulnerability; international norms against assassination; and Marcus is keeping up with the newsWe will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailFurther Reading:Joshua Byun and Austin Carson. 2024. “The Senile Superpower?” Foreign Affairs.See all Cheap Talk episodes

Leader age and international security; perceptions of experience vs. cognitive decline; does any of this matter for international outcomes; foreign policy is more than just a leader’s decisions; the problem with hotlines; and Marcus briefly considered a presidential runWe will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailFurther Reading:Dana G. Smith. 2024. “A User’s Guide to Midlife.” New York Times. Joshua Byun and Austin Carson. 2023. “More than a Number: Aging Leaders in International Politics.” International Studies Quarterly 67(1). Christian Ruhl. 2024. “Beijing is unavailable to take your call: Why the US-China crisis hotline doesn’t work.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.See all Cheap Talk episodes

The US allows Ukraine to strike into Russia; the effect of making this public knowledge; prospect theory and taking greater risks in the loss domain; the risk of escalation is context-dependent; wargaming as a way to understand an adversary’s response; how concerned should we be about a possible bird flu pandemic; and Marcus is a worrywartWe will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailCheck out the Cheap Talk online store at cheaptalk.shopSee all Cheap Talk episodes

The international implications of the Trump verdict; pandas are coming back to DC; trust vs. confidence in international relations; reciprocity in the nuclear nonproliferation regime; the real-world importance of trust semantics; interpersonal vs. inter state trust; precedent and trusting relations; and Marcus trusts CanadaWe will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailCheck out the Cheap Talk online store at cheaptalk.shopFurther Reading:Andrew H. Kydd. 2005. Trust and Mistrust in International Relations. Princeton University Press.See all Cheap Talk episodes

The role of foreign affairs in the just-announced presidential debates; an international marathon update; orangutan diplomacy isn’t really diplomacy; the cutest diplomatic animals; cognac diplomacy also isn’t really diplomacy; Antony Blinken plays guitar and delivers a message of US support in Kyiv; does nuclear deterrence even work; and Marcus confesses his love for presidential debatesWe will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailCheck out the Cheap Talk online store at cheaptalk.shopFurther Reading:Detroit Free Press MarathonHeather Chen. 2024. “An ape for palm oil? Why critics say Malaysia’s ‘orangutan diplomacy’ plan is problematic.” CNN.com. Associated Press. 2024. “Call it Cognac Diplomacy: France offered China’s Xi a special drink, in a wink at their trade spat.”Watch Antony Blinken play Rocking’ in the Free World in a Kyiv Bar Paul Poast. 2024. “What We Don’t Know About Nuclear Deterrence Could Hurt Us.” World Politics Review.See all Cheap Talk episodes

The role of bees in international politics; Panda diplomacy is happening; Ukraine’s tenuous position against Russia; prospects for a US/China AI arms control process; letting AI decide to deploy nuclear weapons; the State Department’s new digital and cyber strategy; and Marcus is no entomologistPlease subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailFurther Reading:Sarah Kliff. 2024. “Honeybees Invaded My House, and No One Would Help.” New York Times.Alan Rappeport. 2024. “Giant Pandas Are Returning to San Diego, China Announces.” New York Times.Edward Geist. 2024. “Building a Foundation for Strategic Stability with China on AI.” RAND Corporation.US Department of State. 2024. Building Digital Solidarity: The United States International Cyberspace & Digital Policy Strategy.David E. Sanger. 2024. “A New Diplomatic Strategy Emerges as Artificial Intelligence Grows.” New York Times.See all Cheap Talk episodes

Panda diplomacy, local edition; what is diplomacy, anyway; Israel’s retaliation against Iran; a success story for international diplomacy; a restrained response as a particular kind of signal; the TikTok ban is happening; US aid to Ukraine is happening; Russian strategy in response to this aid; US-Taiwan military collusion; and Marcus thinks things are looking upPlease subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailJeff’s book, Signing Away the Bomb, is now available in paperback!Further Reading:Heather Knight. 2024. “San Francisco Mayor Gives Panda Diplomacy a Try.” New York Times.See all Cheap Talk episodes

TikTok as an information-gathering platform; worries about a wider war in the Middle East; the signal sent by Iran’s attack against Israel; a missile defense success story; how technology affects the risk of escalation; Iran’s nuclear program as a potential target for Israel; cyberattacks in gray zone conflict; a chance for diplomacy to work; and Marcus is hopeful that he is rightPlease subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailJeff’s book, Signing Away the Bomb, is now available in paperback!Further Reading/Listening:Cheap Talk Podcast. March 22, 2024. “Mostly Golden Retriever Videos.” With Special Guest Jaime Settle.Tiffany Hsu and Steven Lee Myers. 2024. “China’s Advancing Efforts to Influence the U.S. Election Raise Alarms.” New York Times.Gaby Del Valle. 2024. “Report: TikTok’s efforts to silo US data are ‘largely cosmetic.’” The Verge.Cheap Talk Recommends:Shogun (Hulu)Love is Blind, Season 5 (Netflix)Ripley (Netflix)The Magic Prank Show with Justin Willman (Netflix)Magic for Humans (Netflix)See all Cheap Talk episodes

Fragmentation in the international relations discipline; normal science versus overarching theory; insights from the International Studies Association annual conference; the best name for a political science department; the US-Japan state visit; state dinners as a signal of alliance ties; insulating the US-Japan relationship from a future Trump administration; Japan’s increasing role in defense cooperation; and Marcus prefers running uphillPlease subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailJeff’s book, Signing Away the Bomb, is now available in paperback!Further Reading:Michael D. Shear. 2024. “To Counter China’s Rising Power, Biden Looks to Strengthen Ties With Japan.” New York Times.Cheap Talk recommends:Otter.ai (AI meeting notes)Perplexity.ai (AI-powered information discovery)See all Cheap Talk episodes

What is happening with the Apple Vision Pro; recent Chinese cyber activity; signaling and deterrence in the cyber domain; building and maintaining cyber trust; demonstrating a capability without losing it; the psychological impact of potential cyberattacks; managing the overall US-China relationship in the midst of cyber incidents; extending the US cyber umbrella; cyber-intrusions into the electoral system in democracies; and Marcus likes powerPlease subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailFurther reading/listening:David E. Sanger and Mark Landler. 2024. “U.S. and Britain Accuse China of Cyberespionage Campaign.” New York Times. Cheap Talk Podcast. 2023. “Giving ChatGPT Our Nuclear Codes.” Cheap Talk recommends:True Detective: Night Country on MaxShogun on FX/Hulu3 Body Problem on NetflixWorld War II: From the Frontlines on NetflixSee all Cheap Talk episodes

Jaime Settle joins Cheap Talk to discuss her research on social media networks; pending legislation to ban TikTok; how social media influences political knowledge and mobilization; the importance of the algorithm to the social media experience; what it is like to work with Meta to conduct research on Facebook; and Marcus is not afraid to take a standJaime Settle is the Cornelia Brackenridge Talbot Professor of Government and Data Science at William & Mary. Check out her work on Google Scholar.Subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailSupport the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shopRead Jaime Settle’s books:Frenemies: How Social Media Polarizes AmericaWhat Goes Without Saying: Navigating Political Discussion in America (with Taylor Carlson)Further reading/listening:2020 Election Research Project. 2023. “First Four Papers from US 2020 Facebook & Instagram Research Election Study Published in Science and Nature.” Medium.Cheap Talk Podcast. 2023. “It Comes Down to Paranoia.”See all Cheap Talk podcasts

A rebroadcast of the October 16, 2022 episode of Cheap Talk: The sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis; lessons from the crisis; the dangers of reasoning from analogy; why Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine; how NATO would respond if they did; gambling for resurrection; the US role in facilitating peace; and Marcus would prefer that countries refrain from using nuclear weaponsWe’ll be back with a new episode of Cheap Talk soon!Subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailSupport the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shopFurther Reading:David E. Sanger. 2024. “Biden’s Armageddon Moment: When Nuclear Detonation Seemed Possible in Ukraine.” New York Times.Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May. 1986. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers. Free Press.Yuen Foong Khong. 1992. Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965. Princeton University Press.See all Cheap Talk episodes

How leaders matter if you believe countries are people; what would happen if Putin died; the impact of the Russian invasion two years on; what a nuclear weapon in space means for international security; space nukes and the violation of international law; and Marcus thinks every listener would agreeSubscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailSupport the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shopFurther Reading:Rajan Menon. 2024. “Putin Has Already Lost.” New York Times.See all Cheap Talk Episodes

Special guest Nicholas Wheeler returns to Cheap Talk to explain the English School of international relations; why the English School never took off in the US; methodology in IR theory; the fractionalization of IR; nuclear responsibilities; and Marcus doesn’t love sharing the spotlightNicholas Wheeler is @WheelerICCS on Twitter/X. You can also find him on LinkedIn and Google Scholar.Subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailSupport the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shopFurther Reading:Too many to listSee all Cheap Talk podcasts

Nicholas Wheeler joins Cheap Talk to discuss his research program in international diplomacy; personal chemistry among leaders; the security dilemma; explaining Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine; the policy utility of international theory; and Marcus is so excitedSubscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailSupport the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shopNick Wheeler’s books include:Saving Strangers: Humanitarian Intervention in International SocietyThe Security Dilemma: Fear, Cooperation and Trust in World Politics (with Ken Booth)Trusting Enemies: Interpersonal Relationships in International ConflictFurther Reading:Marcus Holmes. 2018. Face-to-Face Diplomacy: Social Neuroscience and International Relations. Cambridge University Press.Robert Jervis. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton University Press.Tuomas Forsberg and Heikki Patomäki. 2022. Debating the War in Ukraine: Counterfactual Histories and Future Possibilities. Routledge. Stephen M. Walt. 2022. “An International Relations Theory Guide to the War in Ukraine.” Foreign Policy.See all Cheap Talk episodes

What the Apple Vision Pro means for the future of international diplomacy; the essential elements necessary to realize the benefits of face-to-face diplomacy; micro-expressions and realism in virtual worlds; barriers to outsiders and the risk of eavesdropping; verifying that you’re talking to the person you think you’re talking to; the promise of training in virtual and augmented reality; and Marcus can’t wait to hear about thisSubscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailSupport the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shopFurther Reading:Marcus Holmes. 2018. Face-to-Face Diplomacy: Social Neuroscience and International Relations. Cambridge University Press. Sign up for an Apple Vision Pro demo at your local Apple Store via Apple’s websiteSee all Cheap Talk episodes

Iran and the risk of a wider war in the Middle East; the likely US response to the recent drone strike; how to cooperate in an age of conflict; barriers to working together; the role of confidence-building mechanisms in international security; the death of the dream of Korean reunification; and Marcus doesn’t want to scare the listenerSubscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailSupport the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shopSee all Cheap Talk podcasts

Doomsday clock trivia; the origins of the clock; over-interpreting what time it is; becoming desensitized to global threats; public education and advocacy around existential risk; risk assessment by the global elite; the perils of expert prediction; and Marcus thinks this is a trick questionSubscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailSupport the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shopFurther reading:“2024 Doomsday Clock Announcement.” 2024. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.“Doomsday Clock Timeline.” 2023. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.Kennette Benedict. 2023. “Answers to Common Questions.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “Global Risks Report 2024.” 2024. World Economic Forum. Philip E. Fetlock and Dan Gardner. 2015. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown Books.Seth Walder. 2023. “Going for 2 down 8 points: Explaining NFL analytics strategy.” ESPN.com.See all Cheap Talk episodes

International bright spots for 2024; democracy is still a thing; a newly aggressive Iran; Iran as a missile power; domestic political imperatives for international conflict; Pakistan’s response and the maintenance of an international reputation; an absence of diplomacy in the region; the US and multinational response to Houthi attacks; where is Saudi Arabia when you need them; whether Iran has changed its strategy; and Marcus is the psychologist in the roomSubscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choicePlease send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemailSupport the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shopFurther Reading:Lara Jakes and David E. Sanger. 2024. “Iran’s New Missile Fleet: Part Deterrent, Part Sales Pitch.” New York Times.See all Cheap Talk episodes.